By Babajide Komolafe & Emma Ujah, Washington DC
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced its economic growth forecast for Nigeria in 2025 to 3.0%, attributing the revision to a drop in global crude oil prices.
The updated forecast was included in the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, which was released during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Washington, DC.
The new forecast reflects a 0.2 percentage point decrease from the IMF’s previous projection of 3.2%.
According to the report: “For sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected to slightly decline from 4.0% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2025, before making a modest recovery to 4.2% in 2026.
“Among the larger economies, Nigeria’s growth forecast has been downgraded by 0.2 percentage points for 2025 and 0.3 percentage points for 2026, primarily due to lower oil prices.”
The IMF also highlighted similar economic challenges facing other major African economies: “In South Africa, the growth forecast has been revised down by 0.5 percentage points for 2025 and 0.3 percentage points for 2026, due to weaker-than-expected performance in 2024, declining sentiment amid increased uncertainty, rising protectionist policies, and a more pronounced slowdown in major economies.”
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In a more significant revision, the IMF also sharply lowered South Sudan’s 2025 forecast: “South Sudan has seen a drastic downward revision of 31.5 percentage points for 2025, owing to delays in restarting oil production after damage to a key pipeline.”
