October 13, 2025
Economic analysts have pointed out that with a stronger naira, improved food supply, and stable energy costs as key drivers of continued price moderation, Nigeria’s inflation rate is expected to maintain its downward turn in September 2025.
They however, warned that while the trend remains positive, inflationary pressures may persist in some sectors due to high logistics costs and seasonal demand ahead of the festive period.
The overall outlook suggests a mild but steady slowdown in consumer prices, an indication of a potential turning point in Nigeria’s inflation-easing cycle.
According to a forecast by Equities Trader and Business Strategist at Rostrum Investment & Securities Ltd, Jessica Ifada, “Nigeria’s inflation rate is likely to be around 20.50% to 21.30% in September 2025, showing only a mild moderation from August”.
READ MORE; Nigeria Unveils Livestock Policy New Framework To Boost Food Security
She noted that though has strengthened the progress is yet to be felt, “the effect is yet to translate meaningfully into lower market prices, as traders are still selling old stock purchased at higher exchange rates.”
The coming festive season, Ifada, said could temporarily slow disinflation, as demand for food, clothing, and transport typically rises in the “ember months.”
She noted that, despite the CBN’s tight policy stance with the MPR at 27.00%, high logistics costs and imported inflation could keep price pressures sticky. “A broad-based price drop still appears unlikely until exchange rate gains and supply improvements become more sustained.”
Another analyst and Portfolio Manager at CFG Africa, Olumayowa Bolujoko, was more positive, emphasizing a slow down in inflation in September 2025”. He attributed this to continued moderation in both headline and food inflation, supported by the appreciating naira and stable energy prices.
Bolujoko stated that ,“Moreover, September coincides with the harvest season for major food crops such as maize, yam, rice, millet, and sorghum—staple items in Nigerian households.
READ MORE; CBN Reduces Interest Rate To 27%, Introduces 75% CRR On Public Deposit
The improved supply of these commodities is expected to reinforce the downward movement in food inflation, which recorded a sharp decline in August,”
He added that the steady pump price of petrol has also helped reduce potential shocks from the energy segment and manufacturing costs.
Food inflation remains the most stubborn component of Nigeria’s CPI, and although the harvest season offers relief, high logistics costs continue to limit the benefits to end consumers.
The festive season could also drive temporary spikes in demand for essentials, particularly in food and transport categories in the coming months.
Analysts have however given several factors likely to contribute to easing inflation in September 2025.
The appreciation of the naira across both official and parallel markets, averaging N1,498.38/$ in September compared to N1,535.25/$ in August. This relative stability in the foreign exchange market is expected to reduce imported inflation, especially for goods dependent on international supply chains.
READ MORE; Naira Rises To N1,484/$ at Official Market
In terms of food supply, September coincides with the peak of the main harvest season, which has boosted the supply of key staples like maize, yam, rice, millet, and sorghum. Increased agricultural output typically softens food prices, easing the burden on consumers.
Inflation readings from September 2024 were already elevated, meaning current year-on-year comparisons naturally produce a lower percentage change—an effect analysts refer to as the “base effect.”
The pump price of petrol remained that has steady throughout the month coupled with Dangote Refinery reducing its ex-depot price to N820/litre from N850/litre in August is also a plus. This price stability helps contain transportation and production costs across various sectors.
Another factor is the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN’s decision to hold the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.0%.
