December 4, 2025
The Federal Executive Council (FEC) at it meeting on Wednesday, approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework, MTEF, a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years.
The Wednesday’s FEC meeting was presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja.
The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.
The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises.
The Nigeria Senate had in December approved the 2025–2027 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTEF-FSP), paving the way for a N47.9 trillion budget proposal for 2025.
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Bagudu explained that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.
He noted that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year.
FEC also adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, on macroeconomic assumptions, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes.
An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.
Bagudu explained that the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections.
He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies.
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He said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits.
The Senate had earlier approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration
The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.
In December 2024, President Tinubu, during his budget presentation speech, said the 2025 budget was based on the projections that inflation would decline from the current rate of 34.6 per cent to 15 per cent, while the exchange rate will improve from approximately 1,700 naira per US dollar to 1,500 naira.
Meanwhile Standard Bank in its latest assessment, projected that the Naira would close at N1,458.8/$1 by December 2025.
