October 14, 2025
There has been a downward review of the International Energy Agency, IEA, forecast for global oil demand growth this year by 35,000 barrels per day (bpd)
According to the IEA’s October Oil Market Report, Global oil demand is now expected to rise by around 710,000 bpd in 2025 compared to last year, reaching 103.84 million bpd,
The previous report had projected an increase of about 740,000 bpd.
Named among the main factors slowing the pace of oilconsumption growth, were challenging macroeconomic conditions and the electrification of transport.
READ MORE; Crude Oil Prices Rise Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting
Oil demand in OECD regions is expected to fall by 30,000 bpd year on year to 45.81 million bpd, while demand in non-OECD countries is projected to rise by 740,000 bpd to 58.03 million bpd.
Global oil demand is forecast to grow by a further 700,000 bpd in 2026 compared to this year, reaching 104.54 million bpd.
Meanwhile, global oil supply rose by 760,000 bpd in September, reaching 108 million bpd. The increase was mainly driven by a 1 million bpd rise in OPEC+ output, led by Middle Eastern producers.
During the same period, OPEC’s crude oil supply rose by about 860,000 bpd month on month to 35.08 million bpd. Oil production in non-OPEC countries, however, fell by roughly 110,000 bpd to 72.92 million bpd.
Global oil supply is projected to increase by 3 million bpd this year to an average of 106.1 million bpd and by a further 2.4 million bpd next year.
READ MORE; OPEC+ Hints On Raise In Oil Output By 547,000 bpd In September.
Non-OPEC+ countries are expected to contribute 1.6 million bpd of the increase this year and 1.2 million bpd next year, led by the United States, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina.
Under the current production agreement, OPEC+ output is planned to rise by 1.4 million bpd this year and 1.2 million bpd next year. Nigeria Bonds Yield Sinks to 16% on Broad-Based Demand
Global oil supply is estimated to average 105.8 million bpd this year and 107.9 million bpd in 2026.
