November 12, 2025
Data from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, Monthly Oil Market Report, MOMR, released on Wednesday, has it that Nigeria’s crude oil production climbed marginally from 1.39 million bpd recorded in September to 1.401 million barrels per day, bpd, in October.
Notwithstanding, the report shows that Nigeria fell short of meeting its OPEC-assigned quota for the third consecutive month, the last time it met its target being July 2025.
According to OPEC’s data, Nigeria averaged 1.444 million bpd in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, representing a decline from 1.481 million bpd in Q2 and 1.468 million bpd in Q1.
The figures translate the country’s ongoing struggle to sustain production recovery despite new investments and government interventions in the upstream sector.
The data also showed that global oil supply exceeded demand by 500,000 barrels per day in October, as against the estimated 400,000-barrel shortfall reported the previous month.
According to OPEC’s Vienna-based secretariat the shift is partly due to increased non-OPEC production, with 890,000 barrels per day added globally more than half of which came from the United States.
Nigeria’s Minister of State for Petroleum (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, had in October, announced plans to formally request that OPEC raised Nigeria’s production quota up from the current 1.5 million bpd.to 2 million bpd.
Lokpobiri emphasized that the recent deployment of new drilling rigs, the revival of dormant oil fields, and fresh investments by international oil companies, IOCs, have positioned Nigeria to ramp up production capacity.
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Persistent production shortfall in Nigeria has been blamed on pipeline vandalism, oil theft, ageing infrastructure, and funding constraints affecting key oil projects. Although the government has intensified surveillance and security along oil corridors, production levels have yet to reach pre-2020 levels when the country consistently exceeded 1.8 million bpd.
The inability to meet its OPEC quota for three consecutive months poses a challenge for Nigeria foreign exchange earnings, as oil remains the country’s largest revenue source.
However, the gradual uptick in output as experienced in October has showed signs of a slow but steady rebound that could strengthen the government’s fiscal position if sustained.
Nigeria could be positioning itself for a stronger showing in 2026, with the ongoing rehabilitation of refineries, the coming onstream of new private refineries like Dangote’s, and the renewed focus on upstream investment, however, it should address the security and infrastructure shortfalls.
Although Nigeria’s October oil production figures fell short of OPEC’s expectations, they represent a tentative upward trend capable of defining the trajectory of it oil sector recovery.
